Category: Tips

Yesterday’s first selection, Chaplins Bay, ran a creditable race in defeat, finishing fourth, only a short head behind the third horse, having gone off the 3/1 favourite. Let’s hope he takes his chance again soon. The race was won by an 18/1 outsider from the Fahey stable, which I hadn’t fancied myself, but you can never underestimate the man. Wavelet won in fine style with Jamie Spencer looking around for dangers from a long way out, so he knew he had a horse under him. The betting market was a bit confused – with three non-runners there were 9/2 co-favourites of four for a while, in a six horse race, before clever people came to the same conclusion as me. Wavelet went off 7/2 favourite and won as it liked. Advised at 5/1, which I got myself late in the afternoon, so another good day at the office. This has been an unprecedented run, over a short sample of selections, so don’t go mad thinking I will maintain this strike rate – there will be losing days ahead, as sure as eggs is eggs.

Derby Day today, and despite Keiron Fallon telling the newspapers he fancies the outsider he rides today, I will be giving it a swerve. My first selection couldnt be running further away from Epsom, and goes at Musselburgh in the 4.00pm race. EXCHEQUER, yet to win on turf but with some very solid form under its belt, is taken to provide a winner for David Brown, who quietly achieves a very good strike rate from his base in Nottinghamshire. The selection won a Class 3 handicap at Lingfield two runs ago, but didnt handle things at Goodwood last time out, though was only beaten 5-6 lengths in a Class 2. I don’t hold anything against a horse that doesn’t handle Goodwood, and Musselburgh wll be more to its liking. With a 21% strike rate at the track, the trainer knows the score and isn’t going all that way without a live chance. At 7/1 you could afford to have an each way bet for safety, because I don’t see it being out of the frame, but the bet today is 2pts WIN EXCHEQUER (4.00pm Musselburgh).

Another trainer who isnt generally in the spotlight is John Mackie, who trains a comparatively small string in Derbyshire, and seems to do particularly well at the likes of Nottingham and Southwell but has the occasional tilt at Doncaster and his Hurry Home Poppa takes its chance in a 7 runner field in the 3.05pm. The market for this race may be twisted slightly by the presence of a racing club horse, so if their members smash into Christmas Hamper, we may get a decent price on the selection which is currently available (just after noon) at 9/2 with Ladbrokes and Corals but is generally available at 4/1 which you should find no trouble getting. Third and second on its last two outings, Franny Norton takes the ride over from Joe Fanning and I expect it to do the business. 2pts WIN Hurry Home Poppa (Doncaster 3.05pm).

There will be no bet tomorrow (Sunday) so I will hope to have something decent for you on Monday. Good luck, and enjoy the Derby – but bet elsewhere!

Yesterdays’s banker Treasury Notes didn’t let me down, winning a shade cosily at 7/2, only doing just enough to win, and may be one to follow. The other selection, though speculative, ran a cracker to come third, beaten only two necks, so it came very close to us having a 100% strike rate, however temporary!

A couple of late ones for you today. The first of them runs at Catterick in the penultimate race, and although there are others with chances, and I’m wary of some of those forecast at big prices, I have narrowed down the field and the voices in my head have told me to side with Chaplins Bay (Catterick 4.55pm). Ruth Carr had a hard act to follow when she took over the yard from her grandfather David Chapman, but she does very well indeed, has plenty of winners and a very healthy strike rate, primarily with horses aged 4 years and upwards. Chaplins Bay appears to be family-owned, and initially I thought its name might be a homage to the great Chaplins Club, which was a real stable star for David Chapman back in the 1980’s. For a number of years I believe it held the record for the most handicaps won in a single season (9 wins in 1988, I’ve just checked). But my trip down memory lane was a dead end, because the gelding was originally a 180,000gns yearling purchase, and trained in Ireland by David Wachman, so the family had no say in the naming of it, though perhaps that was why the horse caught their eye at the sales. Picked up fairly cheaply at auction by Ruth Carr, he has run three times for the yard this year, coming 2nd at Thirsk, 1st at Hamilton, and 4th at Carlisle, so has lost his maiden tag and is in decent form. That run at Carlisle saw him beaten only 2 lengths, and but he may find Catterick more to his liking. It’s true that he has crept up the handicap as a result of recent performances, but off bottom weight today, I think Chaplins Bay has a fair chance against some beatable opponents and may still have some improvement in him. 2pts WIN, around 4/1 is available and the likely starting price.

Wavelet (Doncaster 6.40pm) disappointed recently at Goodwood but that was a big step up in class, and she was coming back after a three month absence. Not every horse will adapt to Goodwood, and since her other form is very solid, albeit on all weather surfaces, I think she is worth another chance. She is dropping back down in class today as well, and I believe is worth an interest, so 1pt WIN at around the 5/1 mark (Tote, Betfred, Corals) some are shorter but you should have no problem getting 5/1.

Well, yesterday we got off to a good start, with two winners from two tips, and at brilliant odds into the bargain. What a pity that both winners were affected by a rule 4 deduction due to late withdrawals. Bletchley (Nottingham 2.00), which I thought was a stand out each way bet, duly obliged at the surprisingly good odds of 25/1, with a 10p Rule 4, so if you did as you were told and placed your wager with a layer offering a best odds guarantee, we got things off and running in fine style. The second selection held on well to win by a neck, so not as comfortably as I expected, but they all count. Sadly there was a 25p Rule 4 deduction due to the late withdrawal of Ifan so our 4/1 was effectively 3/1. No complaints from me.

I have two for you today, and the first of those is a slightly speculative punt that I might not have put on here if we hadn’t already got some profit in the bank. It runs in a rather trappy race for two-year olds, but there isn’t a huge array of stars taking part. You will hopefully come to realise that I am not averse to trying to find the least-bad horse in a poor race, for much as the racing press tend to look down their noses at some of the races put on for our entertainment and profit, I have always held the view that it can often be a lot harder to find the winner in premium races, where all of the horses have reasonable or exceptional ability, and there is profit to be made analysing the lower grade races.

There are a couple of previous winners in today’s first race which has less than eight runners so we wont be going each way, but have spotted a live outsider. The winners n the race haven’t beaten much, and La Casa Tarifa (Hamilton 2.00pm) is a big priced outsider. Trained by Mark Johnston, it has had only one previous outing, just over a week ago, when it ran very green at Carlisle. The filly will be sure to have come on for that race, and the fact that he has turned her out again quickly would suggest that the trainer is keen to get busy with her. She wasn’t an expensive purchase – nothing in the race was – and since I have lost count of the trainers who came back from the yearling sales full of praise for the physical characteristics of the yearlings her sire Casamento had produced, I am prepared to take a chance on her being better than the bare form so far. So the first selection today is La Casa Tarifa – 1pt WIN which I have spotted at 12/1 generally.

I know a bit more about today’s second selection, because it was a 54,000gns purchase at the breeze up sales a couple of years ago, and was sent to Amazing Racing’s trainer, Mark Loughnane. He thought very highly of this Lope De Vega colt, but it was very backward and didn’t race at two. It was placed early in its three year old career, but was still far from the finished article and was sent home to strengthen up. While it was on its holidays it was sold privately and sent to David O’Meara by its new connections, for whom it won at Hamilton, and has since won again as a four year old over a mile at Ripon. And that is where it is going again today. Treasury Notes (Ripon 3.50pm) is a course and distance winner who it was originally thought would eventually be a very nice animal indeed. O’Meara has taken a little while to settle into his new yard, but took some decent animals with him from his old place, and is coming into a good run of form. Treasury Notes will win more races and should go on to better things. Now rated 87, that is the main selection today – 2pts WIN. There has been a little bit of 4/1 available this morning but 7/2 is generally available and I suggest you grab it with both hands.

My first selection of the day leapt out at me from the first race I took a look at today. A 2yo maiden at Nottingham may not be everybody’s idea of an ideal starting point, but bear with me. Given the slavish devotion of newspaper analysts and tipsters to the top stables and richest owners, there is sometimes a bit of value to be had in applying a little bit more logic than they do to the task of finding a winner. And as I sipped my early morning coffee I was surprised to see my selection listed at the mouth-watering price of 20/1. Got your attention?

To be honest, the selection of Bletchley (Nottingham 2.00) is partly due to her trainer Ralph Beckett, a man who commands some respect even in a race where the likes of Gosden, Stoute and Botti are represented. A top class trainer, with what we might assume is a pretty decent filly, being owned by the mighty Qatar Racing. Yes, I know I am doing exactly what I criticised others for in the last paragraph, by paying homage to a top trainer and owner, but I am motivated by the lack of respect being shown to the horse by the betting market as things stand – it’s purely a question of VALUE.
Beckett has a very acceptable strike rate with two year olds, decent overall results at the track, and the stable is in good form. Added to which the horse is drawn high, so will have the stands rail advantage, and I can see no good reason for it being 20/1. All the focus seems to be on the Gosden and Stoute horses. Gosden’s Reeh is dropping down in class, after disappointing at Ascot, and Stoute’s Parlance, which was a very expensive yearling at 450,000gns, is half-sister to another very expensive filly that hasn’t yet seen a racecourse at three years of age, so that one may need the run.

I think they are worth taking on, so as a value bet, I recommend 1pt EACH WAY, at odds of 20/1 (widely available) or better if you can get it. I will be betting with one of the many bookmakers who offer a Best Odds Guarantee (BOG), so please do likewise – you never know, the price may drift if the market continues to expect Gosden and Stoute to win everything.

Little Choosey (Nottingham 5.00) is my second bet of the day. Again, an apprentice handicap won’t be everyone’s cup of tea, but the horse is a course and distance winner, and remains on a winnable mark after winning off 4lb lower at Wolverhampton recently. The mare has a decent apprentice on board in Hollie Doyle, who won on her last time out, and it’s not a great race so I dont expect anything will surprise us. 1pt WIN on Little Choosey.

Good luck till next time!